Metrics: Activation to Retention Loops

Most products don't fail because of bad ideas. They fail because users never reach value.

When I think about metrics, I don't start with dashboards. I start with behavior.

Activation is the moment a user experiences meaningful value. Retention is whether that value compounds over time. The gap between them is where products live or die.

I focus on identifying:

The smallest unit of value

The action that delivers it

The feedback loop that reinforces it

Metrics should follow the user journey, not the org chart.

For activation, I look for leading indicators. These are behaviors that strongly correlate with long term retention, even if they don't generate revenue yet.

For retention, I think in loops, not cohorts. What pulls the user back? What creates momentum? What decays if they leave?

I'm cautious about vanity metrics. High engagement without progression often signals confusion, not success.

The most useful metric frameworks answer:

Are users getting value?

Are they getting it faster?

Are they coming back for the same reason?

Good metrics create clarity. Great metrics change decisions.